U.S. tariffs on Brazilian imports could lead to new toilet paper shortage

The trade war initiated by President Donald Trump is raising concerns among global paper suppliers, with a real risk of toilet paper shortages returning to U.S. supermarkets. The Brazilian company Suzano, the world’s largest pulp exporter, stated that U.S. tariffs are disrupting shipments of the raw material essential for producing toilet paper and other hygiene products.

Brazilian companies, which supply bleached hardwood pulp widely used by American manufacturers, reported a 20% drop in exports to the U.S. in April compared to the same month last year.

“In response to the tariffs, we’ve had to pass increased costs on to U.S. buyers,” said João Alberto de Abreu, Suzano’s CEO, in an interview with Bloomberg News. Currently, Brazil faces a 10% universal tariff on its exports.

Suzano’s warning comes as memories of the 2020 toilet paper shortage, caused by panic buying and pandemic-related logistics issues. Although store shelves remain stocked for now, industry analysts warn that even a small surge in stockpiling by U.S. buyers could destabilize the paper supply chain once again.

The market is already reacting, as Suzano’s shares fell as much as 4.3% on Friday in São Paulo, reaching their lowest intraday level since June, as investors responded to growing concerns about tariff pressure.

Company executives say the tariff uncertainty is disrupting contract negotiations and pricing structures. During an earnings call, Suzano’s executive vice president Leonardo Grimaldi highlighted the sector’s growing instability. “Since customers are still struggling to forecast how tariffs can affect their production plans, either directly or indirectly, all pulp buyers and sellers are in price-discovery mode,” Grimaldi said.

 

Suzano is not alone in raising the alarm, as several other global suppliers have flagged potential bottlenecks in the supply of essential goods if the trade dispute escalates. The company’s concerns also underscore a broader trend: trade tensions, once focused on high-tech or luxury goods, are now spilling over into basic commodities that are vital to daily life.

Brazil, one of the world’s largest pulp producers, has become a flashpoint in the latest trade conflict. With the U.S. raising tariffs across a wide range of imports as part of Trump’s aggressive trade policy, Brazilian exporters are scrambling to protect market share while coping with higher costs.

Suzano, which played an important role during the toilet paper shortage in the pandemic, says it is working to adjust to the new trade conditions. Still, the company warns that continued tariff pressure could affect the entire supply chain — and eventually reach U.S. consumers in their daily routines. “Pulp isn’t just another commodity,” said Abreu. “It’s at the heart of some of the most essential products we use every day.”

Last month, Apollo Global Management also issued a warning, predicting that U.S. store shelves could be empty within weeks due to Trump’s steep tariffs on Chinese goods.

Apollo’s chief economist, Torsten Slok, explained that Trump’s tariffs could stop Chinese shipments by mid-May. This may cause empty store shelves and lower sales by the end of the month, followed by layoffs in the trucking and retail sectors, and a U.S. recession by summer 2025.

While some analysts believe existing inventory could delay visible impacts, Slok warns of “COVID-like shortages” as goods from China stop arriving and the economy begins to stall.