Trump’s tariffs on Canadian lumber threaten new toilet paper shortage in U.S.

The Trump administration’s plan to increase tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber risks triggering a shortage of an essential household item in the United States: toilet paper. The proposed measures, which could raise import taxes to as high as 52%, threaten to disrupt the supply of northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp — a key material in manufacturing sanitary paper products.

Roughly 30% of U.S. toilet paper and half of all paper towels rely on Canadian NBSK pulp. Last year alone, the U.S. imported 2 million metric tons of the material, according to Brian McClay, president of TTOBMA, a global pulp market analyst.

“Some of these mills in the United States, some of the big branded products, not only want softwood pulp from Canada, they want softwood pulp from this particular mill — they’ve been using it for 30 years and they will not change”, McClay said. “If Canadian pulp mills close because they don’t have the fiber supply, I can’t think of any other option for them — they just can’t switch the recipe around”.

The move has raised alarms in an industry still marked by toilet paper shortages during the pandemic era. In addition to possible shortages, consumers could also face price increases.

While Trump frames the tariffs as a way to reshore manufacturing, industry experts emphasize that Canadian pulp’s unique qualities — like superior tensile strength — make it irreplaceable with U.S. alternatives.

“They don’t buy our products for our pretty eyes”, said Frederic Verreault, VP of Quebec-based wood processor Chantiers de Chibougamau. “They buy our products because they are the best and the most integrated into their factories”.

 

DOMINO EFFECT ON SUPPLY CHAIN

The tariffs could disrupt the supply chain, leading to a cascading effect across the industry. If lumber prices rise, construction activity may slow, reducing the number of trees harvested. This, in turn, could shrink the supply of wood chips — a key material for pulp production. Consequently, tissue manufacturers may encounter cost increases and potential shortages, further straining the market.

If import taxes surpass 50% as projected, “that’s going to put some sawmills out of business, and that’ll reduce the supply of wood chips”, McClay cautioned. “Because we don’t really cut trees for making pulp in Canada, we depend on residual chips from sawmills. It would certainly boost the cost and probably reduce output”.

Jean-Francois Samray, from the Quebec Forest Sector Council, compared sawmills to critical infrastructure: “It’s like pipelines, it’s like power grids: It’s all full, or all empty”. In this hyper-competitive market, he noted, even temporary closures would ripple across North America.

Julie Landry of the American Forest & Paper Association acknowledged the risk: “Tariffs could disrupt our complex cross-border supply chains. We cannot predict outcomes should they fully go into effect”.

POLITICAL CONTEXT AND NEXT STEPS

The tariff escalation extends a long-running trade dispute. Current U.S. duties on Canadian lumber stand at 14%, but a Commerce Department proposal would hike that to 27% this year. With Trump’s threatened 25% across-the-board tariffs, the total levy could hit 52%.

The situation may worsen pending a Trump-ordered investigation into whether lumber imports threaten U.S. national security — potentially justifying additional tariffs.

On April 2, the U.S. faces a deadline to delay imposing 25% tariffs on goods covered under the U.S.-Canada trade agreement. The same day, former President Trump is expected to announce sweeping new tariffs aimed at enforcing ‘reciprocal’ global trade.

Major producers with cross-border operations, such as Domtar Corp., are closely watching the developments. “Free trade between Canada and the United States benefits consumers”, said Antoine Kack, a company spokesperson.