US retail tissue market expected to grow nearly 2% in value in 2026
Market projections presented at Tissue Summit North America 2026 indicate a 0.3% decline in volume this year, with value growth expected to average 2% annually through 2030, driven by premiumisation, product innovation and pricing
The US retail tissue market is expected to record value growth of just under 2% in 2026, while sales volume is projected to decline by 0.3%, according to market projections presented during a session at Tissue Summit North America 2026, held in Green Bay. The outlook for the 2027–2030 period follows a similar trend, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2% in value and 0.3% in volume. The figures are preliminary, as research covering the full year is still underway.
Toilet paper, which represents the largest share of the category’s value, recorded a 1.6% increase in dollar sales, despite a 0.7% decline in volume. The results reflect the maturity of the US market, where consumption levels remain relatively stable, while demand for higher-quality products and ongoing cost pressures support value growth.
The presentation also highlighted growing consumer interest in bidets and moist toilet wipes, indicating changes in preferences beyond traditional toilet paper products.
Paper towels, the second-largest segment in terms of value, were the only category to post growth in both value and volume in 2026. Performance was supported by consistent demand for convenient household cleaning solutions and a shift towards products offering greater strength and absorbency.
Facial tissue, meanwhile, recorded weaker volume performance, partly attributed to a milder cold and flu season.
POPULATION GROWTH AND CONSUMPTION LIMITATIONS
The market outlook also pointed to structural factors limiting volume growth in the coming years. US population growth is expected to slow through 2030, alongside a deceleration in net migration. In addition, per capita consumption in the mature essential tissue category is relatively stable.
With limited opportunities to increase consumption per person, manufacturers are expected to rely increasingly on premiumisation, product innovation and pricing strategies to support value growth.
However, passing on price increases has become more challenging as consumers grow increasingly sensitive to higher costs. The category experienced significant year-over-year price increases in 2022 and 2023, following record pulp prices in mid-2022. Since then, price increases have moderated amid greater consumer resistance.
The broader economic outlook further highlights the challenges facing the sector. US real GDP growth is projected at 2.2% in 2026, below the global average of 3%, while inflation is expected to reach at least 3.5%, compared with 2.7% in 2025.
PRIVATE LABEL STRENGTHENS ITS POSITION
Private label products now account for 41% of US retail tissue volume. Club and warehouse retail formats collectively represent 8% of the country’s tissue sales in dollar terms, a channel share identified as a factor supporting the expansion of premium private label products.