On Monday, the 10th, the Fastmarkets RISI Virtual Conference for Latin America began, the main global data provider for the commodity markets and the forest-based industry. The Tissue Online Portal followed the first day of the program, in which the specialists approached the global market for cellulose and tissue paper.
RISI projects that the market demand for pulp should contract 2.4Mt in 2020, as the exaggerated drop in the consumption of graphic paper should overcome the growth in demand for tissue and packaging.
For 2021, RISI projects that market pulp demand will grow 2Mt, only partially offsetting the declines in 2020. Overall, RISI expects a moderate recovery in market fundamentals in the fourth quarter of 2020, with price gains accelerating in the first semester of 2021, dependent on additional supply reductions balancing the market.
The North America tissue market has been strong recently, the AfH sector particularly benefitted from the robust economy boosting all outside activities. However, in 2020, the outcome will be totally different by presenting good At-Home tissue growth and AfH sector diving.
The first half of the year shipment volume grew 18% in US At-Home sector, meanwhile the AfH sector began to suffer in April and the first half showed a decline of 6% in this tissue shipments. In the second half of 2020, RISI predicts At-Home demand will slow but still be above average.
It is likely that the AfH sector will not fully recover even in 2021 as working from home will continue to some degree and other public traffic will remain lower than in past years. This will reduce total growth, while At-Home growth will be good.
RISI also showed US tissue imports from China from 2010 to 2019 by saying the main categories have suffered from the tariffs, parent roll imports have almost disappeared and bathroom tissue imports have declined substantially.
The growth of the tissue market is hopeful, RISI projects a global demand for tissue at + 4.7% in 2020, above the last few years, as the pandemic increases the demand for tissue despite weakness in the professional segment. China is expected to continue to boost global tissue growth by between 5% and 6% in 2020, but overcapacity is a threat in most regions, except in North America.
The outlook in net capacity change and tissue operating rates in North America is good despite the number of projects. COVID-19 effects very positive in 2020 but a lot depends on how net imports develop. Slower market growth in 2021-2023 will turn capacity utilization south, but only slightly, so the current market outlook is good. However, new capacity additions are likely to emerge 2022-2023.
To learn more about the Risi Fastmarket Conference for Latin America, visit: http://www.risi.com/laconf