The North American tissue industry is facing increasing competitive pressure driven by structural shifts in China. In this context, the most critical factor is not what China has already achieved, but rather the production capacity that remains unused.
During Tissue World Miami 2026, Marcello Collares highlighted that China has expanded its tissue production capacity by approximately 10 million metric tons over the past 24 years. However, it is currently operating at around 65% utilization, leaving roughly 35% of installed capacity idle. As a result, this represents millions of tons that could enter global markets without requiring new capital investments.
At the same time, this dynamic is reinforced by a second structural shift related to fiber supply. According to Trip Jobe, China’s dependence on imported pulp has declined to approximately 30% of total fiber consumption and continues to decrease. This trend is driven by the expansion of domestic pulp production and a long term afforestation strategy aligned with national industrial planning.
In addition, the expansion of machinery capacity further strengthens this transformation. Over the past four years, 145 new tissue machines have been installed across Asia, while North America has experienced a net contraction. Moreover, six of the nine most advanced tissue machines currently operating in Asia are located in China, all installed since 2022. This is complemented by a significant cost of capital advantage, estimated at around 3% in China compared to approximately 8% in North America.
As a consequence, the implications for North American manufacturers are not hypothetical. Over the past two decades, tissue imports into the United States have steadily increased, primarily from the Asia Pacific region. This trend has been driven by insufficient domestic investment, allowing foreign producers to fill demand in a market with relatively limited tariff barriers.
What distinguishes the current moment, however, is the convergence of multiple factors. China is not only a low cost producer but is also evolving into a technologically advanced player, supported by increasing domestic fiber availability and substantial idle capacity that can be activated depending on market conditions.
On the pulp side, the impact is equally significant. Net growth in bleached kraft pulp over the next decade is expected to concentrate in hardwood fibers such as eucalyptus, while softwood supply faces structural constraints. In this scenario, reduced Chinese demand for imported pulp could redirect supply toward North America and Europe, altering regional price dynamics and availability.
Ultimately, the North American industry is confronting a challenge that does not depend on new capacity additions in China, but rather on strategic decisions regarding when and how existing capacity is deployed. Therefore, responsiveness and strategic positioning will be critical to maintaining competitiveness in the years ahead.
